Studying the history of ââ?¬Å?economic turbulenceââ?¬Â, we ended up with the certainty\nthat the statistical methods used so far, by economists, are unsuitable to\nmodel it. We have mainly the methods of Normal distribution and Random\nWalk in mind. Moreover, the picture of reality we get from time series depends\non the time-frame of the data usedââ?¬Â¦ Different time-frame data, different\nrealityââ?¬Â¦ In addition, econometricians provided a whole family of econometric\nmodels to approach reality, starting in early 1980s, with ââ?¬Å?autoregressive\nmodelsââ?¬â?ARââ?¬Â combined or not with MA (moving averages). But even its 1986\nflagship, the GARCH, with its many variations, cannot cope with a number of\ncharacteristics, one of which is leptokurtosis (small alpha, higher peaks and\nlong tails) [1], though some argue that it can cater for outliers. Economic turbulence,\nlow or highââ?¬â?despite its characterization by Science as rareââ?¬â?became\nfrequent since 1987 (Black Monday)... In late 1990s e.g. the global financial\nsystem underwent 6 crisesââ?¬â?which have been called ââ?¬Å?near turbulencesââ?¬Âââ?¬â?over\na number of countries, including Russia in 1998. The next turbulence will not\nbe one generation apartââ?¬â?we reckon. This paper is an attempt to invite writers\nto write a ââ?¬Å?theory of economic turbulenceââ?¬Â. Turbulence is a nightmare, which\nwakes people up suddenly, and unexpectedly, but it is something people wish\nto forgetââ?¬Â¦ till it strikes again: turbulence stroke in 1929 on (Black) Tuesday,\nthen in 1987 on (Black) Monday and in end-2008, the Great Recessionââ?¬â?on\n29th September. In Black Monday stock markets around the world crashed\nlosing a huge value in a matter of very short time (Hong Kong, Europe, and\nUSA). The Dow fell ~23%. At that time OPEC collapsed in 1986 and the price\nof oil doubledââ?¬Â¦ The dry cargo shipping sector entered a turbulent situation\nsince 1989, which has been deteriorated since 2015 reaching finally an alpha\nequal to ~1.43 < 1.70 by 2035ââ?¬Â¦
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